Neighborhood · Ranked #2,892 of 84,120 nationally

McGinley Square Eviction Risk: Elevated , Jersey City

Tract 34017004104 · Hudson County, NJ · pop 3,478 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 7.5/10, tract 34017004104 in the McGinley Square neighborhood of Jersey City ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,478 residents. It lands near the 99th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,588 a month while the average household earns $68,517 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 84% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

7.6

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 44% Owners 15%

Tract context

Occupied units1,648

Renter share84.1%

SVI overall0.80

Poverty rate18.8%

Median income$68,517

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Jersey City and the region

Centroid at 40.7230, -74.0752 · click any tract to drill in

Why McGinley Square scores 7.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Jersey City

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

18.8% poverty · this tract

4.7

Supply constraint

$1,588 rent vs county FMR

1.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Jersey City

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Jersey City

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Jersey City

8.0

How McGinley Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

80%Socioeconomic
21%Household composition
79%Racial/ethnic minority
93%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
52%Grade B
48%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within McGinley Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.4%Housing insecurity
9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
18.7%Food insecurity
11.0%SNAP enrollment
9.3%Transit barriers
13.1%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
24.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in McGinley Square

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Jersey City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hudson County average of 7.0 and above the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 34017004104

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34017004104?

Census tract 34017004104 in the McGinley Square neighborhood scores 7.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 34017004104?

Median gross rent is $1,588/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34017004104?

18.8% of residents in tract 34017004104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,478.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34017004104?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 21th, minority 79th, housing 93th.

Is tract 34017004104 considered part of McGinley Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34017004104 fall within McGinley Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 34017004104 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34017004104 compare to Jersey City overall?

Tract 34017004104 scores 7.6/10, lower than the parent city of Jersey City at 8.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jersey City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34017004104 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Jersey City

Top eight tracts in Jersey City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.