Tonawanda Town Eviction Risk: Moderate

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.6/10. 16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10.

On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 8.2% against 15.2% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $90,194, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 2.9 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.