Census Tract · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Tonawanda Town Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 36029008400 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,410

Tract 36029008400 sits in Tonawanda Town eviction risk, NY, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.9/10. It is home to 2,410 residents. Severe burden reaches 58%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 6% Owners 76%

Tract context

Occupied units1,017

Renter share24.8%

SVI overall0.50

Poverty rate11.8%

Median income$71,039

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tonawanda Town and the region

Centroid at 42.9714, -78.9195 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tonawanda Town scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

6.2

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

11.8% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$1,034 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

5.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

2.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

4.1

How Tonawanda Town compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

42%Socioeconomic
32%Household composition
27%Racial/ethnic minority
78%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
2%Grade B
1%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.4%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
12.5%Food insecurity
10.8%SNAP enrollment
7.1%Transit barriers
5.9%No health insurance
16.0%Frequent mental distress
24.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tonawanda Town

75% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Erie County average of 44.6%. The clearest offset is tenant-organizing strength at 2.5/10.

On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points.

Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 7/10. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.5/10. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $71,039, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.8 points cooler.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029008400

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029008400?

Census tract 36029008400 in Tonawanda Town scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029008400?

Median gross rent is $1,034/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029008400?

11.8% of residents in tract 36029008400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,410.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029008400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 32th, minority 27th, housing 78th.

What share of households in tract 36029008400 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029008400 compare to Tonawanda Town overall?

Tract 36029008400 scores 5.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Tonawanda Town at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tonawanda Town eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029008400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tonawanda Town

Top eight tracts in Tonawanda Town ranked by composite eviction-risk score.