Tract 36029009007 Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 49.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. It sits 2.1 points below the Erie County average of 6.8.

34% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Erie County average of 44.6%. Disability prevalence runs 16.4% against 31.5% nationally.

Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.8/10. Rent consumes only 13% of average household income of $167,368, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 3.0 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Model confidence here is 65%, lower than typical because some ACS inputs for this tract carry wide margins of error, so read the score as a band, not a point.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.