Brown Square Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. 88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. It sits 2.3 points above the Monroe County average of 7.2.

The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 2/10. Housing insecurity runs 28.0% against 14.2% nationally.

Running hot, economic stress reads 7.8/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 18.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. At $994 a month, rents run 8% under what the rest of Rochester commands. On the national scale it lands near the 97th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.