Upper Falls Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

Food insecurity runs 43.4% against 17.8% nationally. This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10.

It sits 2.3 points above the Monroe County average of 7.2. At $716 a month, rents run 34% under what the rest of Rochester commands.

The poverty rate is 32%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 8/10. 38% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Monroe County average of 46.4%.

Severe burden reaches 14%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rochester. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 97th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 10/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.