3 census tracts · pop 4,764 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 9.5/10
· range 9.5–9.5
Upper Falls spans 3 census tracts of Rochester, NY, population 4,764. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 9.5/10, in the High tier. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 40.0% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.
The poverty rate is 45%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity affects 52.5% of adults, 34.7 points above the national rate.
The dominant input is economic stress at 9.2/10. This is a renter market: 84% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. 43% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, markedly above the Rochester rate of 32.0%.
Set annual rent against average household income of $25,008 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. At $746 a month, rents sit 31% under what the rest of Rochester commands.
24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.2/10. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10.
That places it #1 of 36 neighborhoods in Rochester. The closest comparables inside the same city are Beechwood and Historic Grove Street Neighborhood.
With little internal variation, 9.5/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
9.5
High
3 tracts · population-weighted
Upper Falls vs RochesterHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority94%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport81%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Upper Falls
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
39.3%Housing insecurity
27.7%Utility shutoff threat
51.3%Food insecurity
54.3%SNAP enrollment
21.4%No health insurance
45.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Upper Falls
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Upper Falls?
Upper Falls scores 9.5/10 (High tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Upper Falls compare to Rochester overall?
Upper Falls scores 1.4 points higher than Rochester overall (8.1/10). Renters spend 43% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $746 vs $1,081.
Q3
What is the average rent in Upper Falls?
Average gross rent in Upper Falls is $746/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Upper Falls residents are renters?
84% of Upper Falls households are renter-occupied (vs 62% in Rochester). The neighborhood has 4,764 residents.
Q5
Is Upper Falls a high social-vulnerability area?
Upper Falls sits in the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Upper Falls have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Upper Falls is census tract 36055001300 (score 9.5/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 9.5 to 9.5, a spread of 0 points.
Q7
How safe is Upper Falls for landlords?
Upper Falls carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (9.5/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Rochester as a whole (8.1/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Upper Falls?
Upper Falls has 5,294 residents. Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (44.7%), Hispanic / Latino (37.9%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (11.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
