Upper Falls Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

At $508 a month, rents run 53% under what the rest of Rochester commands. Food insecurity runs 60.7% against 17.8% nationally.

Set annual rent against average income of $12,245 and the ratio lands at 50%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The poverty rate is 64%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 94% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Against the Monroe County average of 7.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points. Disability prevalence runs 51.6% against 31.5% nationally.

Cost burden runs around a third here against 46.4% across Monroe County. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.5/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.