Manhattan Square Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

It sits 1.7 points above the Monroe County average of 7.2. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

The dominant input is local political climate at 7.5/10. Cost burden runs 39% here against 46.4% across Monroe County. Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 7.5/10.

The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10.

At $1,237 a month, rents run 14% over what the rest of Rochester commands. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rochester. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 3.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.