Dutchtown Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

Food insecurity runs 53.0% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 54%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

It sits 2.3 points above the Monroe County average of 7.2. Set annual rent against average income of $29,063 and the ratio lands at 40%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Disability prevalence runs 47.4% against 31.5% nationally.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10. At $969 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Rochester commands.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 97% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.6/10.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 43% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.