Wave Crest Eviction Risk: High , New York

At $927 a month, rents run 49% under what the rest of New York commands. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. Food insecurity runs 35.0% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.1/10.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 100% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 2.2 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 50% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.