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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095004200 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,603 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 39095004200 covers part of the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District area of Toledo, OH, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,603 residents. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 27% Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units700
Renter share64.6%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate33.2%
Median income$38,063

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District
Very High
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#28 of 121 tracts In Toledo
High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
Very High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#554 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6325, -83.5543 · click any tract to drill in

Why Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
33.2% poverty · this tract
8.3
Supply constraint
$1,255 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0042004.0Toledoparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 844Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 17.04%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.0%Peak (2006)
  • 57Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 39095004200
Filings dropped 17% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District

Food insecurity runs 44.6% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,255, 39% above the Toledo average.

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $38,063, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 33%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 24.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 8.3/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2. The voucher gap is 18.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 844 filings here across 15 tracked years.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095004200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095004200?

Census tract 39095004200 in the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095004200?

Median gross rent is $1,255/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095004200?

33.2% of residents in tract 39095004200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,603.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095004200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 100th, household 94th, minority 83th, housing 40th.
Q5

Is tract 39095004200 considered part of Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095004200 fall within Saint Peter and Saint Paul Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095004200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 844 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095004200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.04% of renter households, peaking at 23.0% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095004200 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 24.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095004200 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095004200 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095004200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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