Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Central Avenue Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113001000 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 1,720 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 39113001000 sits in the Central Avenue Historic District area of Dayton eviction risk, OH, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10. It is home to 1,720 residents. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units663
Renter share60.8%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate22.5%
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
22
th percentile
Low
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7640, -84.2104 · click any tract to drill in
Why Central Avenue Historic District scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
22.5% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$890 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How Central Avenue Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 55%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 9%Grade B
- 23%Grade C
- 58%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 487Total filings over 17 yrs
- 8.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.2%Peak (2008)
- 23Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 17 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.4%Housing insecurity
- 20.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.4%Food insecurity
- 32.3%SNAP enrollment
- 16.7%Transit barriers
- 11.1%No health insurance
- 20.6%Frequent mental distress
- 38.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Central Avenue Historic District
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. SNAP participation runs 32.3% against 15.2% nationally. 53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Montgomery County average of 42.9%.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Court records carry 487 eviction filings across 17 observed years.
It sits 0.9 points above the Montgomery County average of 4.2. The worst year on record was 2008, when 18.2% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 8.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113001000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113001000?
Census tract 39113001000 in the Central Avenue Historic District neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113001000?
Median gross rent is $890/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113001000?
22.5% of residents in tract 39113001000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,720.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113001000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 45th, minority 79th, housing 55th.
Q5
Is tract 39113001000 considered part of Central Avenue Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113001000 fall within Central Avenue Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113001000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 487 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113001000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.44% of renter households, peaking at 18.2% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113001000 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113001000 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113001000 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113001000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 58% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Eagle Ridge
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Walnut Hills
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113080700
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
South Park Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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