Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

West Third Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113003500 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,036 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 39113003500 (the West Third Street Historic District neighborhood of Dayton, Ohio) comes in at 6.1/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 64% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $889 a month against an average household income of $32,277 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 34% Stable renters 19% Owners 47%

Tract context

Occupied units853

Renter share53.7%

SVI overall0.96

Poverty rate41.5%

Median income$32,277

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7390, -84.2080 · click any tract to drill in

Why West Third Street Historic District scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dayton

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

41.5% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$889 rent vs county FMR

3.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dayton

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dayton

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dayton

3.5

How West Third Street Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

93%Socioeconomic
98%Household composition
87%Racial/ethnic minority
76%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
14%Grade C
39%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

563Total filings over 17 yrs
6.73%Avg annual filing rate
7.7%Peak (2002)
30Filings in 2018 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2002 to 2018

Filings dropped 35% over the past 17 months.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

37.6%Housing insecurity
34.1%Utility-shutoff threat
51.9%Food insecurity
58.4%SNAP enrollment
26.9%Transit barriers
15.2%No health insurance
23.7%Frequent mental distress
49.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in West Third Street Historic District

What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 37.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 34.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 96th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113003500

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003500?

Census tract 39113003500 in the West Third Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39113003500?

Median gross rent is $889/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003500?

41.5% of residents in tract 39113003500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,036.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 98th, minority 87th, housing 76th.

Is tract 39113003500 considered part of West Third Street Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003500 fall within West Third Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003500?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 563 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.73% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 39113003500 struggle to pay rent?

About 37.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 34.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39113003500 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113003500 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39113003500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 39% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org