Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Dunbar Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113003800 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,070 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 39113003800 in the Dunbar Historic District area of Dayton, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. 70% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Montgomery County average of 42.9%.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units988
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate23.2%
Median income$38,799
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
96
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7647, -84.2448 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dunbar Historic District scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
23.2% poverty · this tract
5.8
Supply constraint
$940 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How Dunbar Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 94%Household composition
- 98%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 60%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 983Total filings over 17 yrs
- 7.57%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.8%Peak (2007)
- 49Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 29% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dunbar Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 32.9%Housing insecurity
- 29.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 44.5%Food insecurity
- 49.4%SNAP enrollment
- 22.9%Transit barriers
- 12.7%No health insurance
- 21.5%Frequent mental distress
- 46.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dunbar Historic District
Food insecurity runs 44.5% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 32.9% against 14.2% nationally. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10. The poverty rate is 23%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
It sits 1.2 points above the Montgomery County average of 4.2. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 983 filings here across 17 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2007 at 9.8% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 7.6% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113003800
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003800?
Census tract 39113003800 in the Dunbar Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113003800?
Median gross rent is $940/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003800?
23.2% of residents in tract 39113003800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,070.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003800?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 94th, minority 98th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 39113003800 considered part of Dunbar Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003800 fall within Dunbar Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003800?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 983 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.57% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113003800 struggle to pay rent?
About 32.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 29.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113003800 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113003800 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113003800 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Eagle Ridge
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
McPherson Town Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113080700
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Eagle Ridge
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Walnut Hills
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Related
Explore the geography around tract 39113003800
Parent city ↑
Dayton
4 / 10
Parent county ↑
Montgomery County
Parent state ↑
Ohio
Sibling tract →
Dunbar Historic District
5.4 / 10
Sibling tract →
Dunbar Historic District
5.4 / 10
Sibling tract →
Dunbar Historic District
5.4 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
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