Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,889 of 84,120 nationally

McDonald Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Girard

Tract 39155932200 · Trumbull County, OH · pop 2,549 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 39155932200 belongs to the McDonald Heights neighborhood of Girard, Ohio. It is home to 2,549 residents and scores 5.5/10, a moderate reading for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #36,996 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 32% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $734 a month against an average household income of $42,313 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12% Stable renters 25% Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,145
Renter share36.1%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate27.4%
Median income$42,313

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In McDonald Heights
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Girard
Elevated
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 54 tracts In Trumbull County
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#533 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Girard and the region

Centroid at 41.1539, -80.6874 · click any tract to drill in

Why McDonald Heights scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Girard
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
27.4% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$734 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Girard
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Girard
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Girard
6.6

How McDonald Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
McDonald Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.35.3This tracttract 932200Girard: 2.62.6Girardparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 15Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 3.11%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.1%Peak (2016)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within McDonald Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in McDonald Heights

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Girard, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Trumbull County average of 5.3 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39155932200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39155932200?

Census tract 39155932200 in the McDonald Heights neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39155932200?

Median gross rent is $734/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39155932200?

27.4% of residents in tract 39155932200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,549.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39155932200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 30th, minority 31th, housing 21th.
Q5

Is tract 39155932200 considered part of McDonald Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39155932200 fall within McDonald Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39155932200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 39155932200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.11% of renter households, peaking at 3.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39155932200 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39155932200 compare to Girard overall?

Tract 39155932200 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Girard at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Girard; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Girard

Top eight tracts in Girard ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related