Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally
McDonald Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Girard
Tract 39155933900 · Trumbull County, OH · pop 1,936 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.9/10, tract 39155933900 in the McDonald Heights neighborhood of Girard ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 1,936 residents. On the national scale it ranks #24,628 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $703 monthly, set against $34,054 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 50% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units821
Renter share50.4%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate25.4%
Median income$34,054
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
82
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Girard and the region
Centroid at 41.1494, -80.7014 · click any tract to drill in
Why McDonald Heights scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Girard
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
25.4% poverty · this tract
6.3
Supply constraint
$703 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Girard
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Girard
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Girard
6.6
How McDonald Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 64
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 84%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 15%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 30Total filings over 1 yrs
- 11.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2016)
- 30Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within McDonald Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.9%Housing insecurity
- 14.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.8%Food insecurity
- 25.9%SNAP enrollment
- 12.9%Transit barriers
- 11.9%No health insurance
- 22.6%Frequent mental distress
- 37.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McDonald Heights
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 7.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Girard, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Trumbull County average of 5.3 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 39155933900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39155933900?
Census tract 39155933900 in the McDonald Heights neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39155933900?
Median gross rent is $703/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39155933900?
25.4% of residents in tract 39155933900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,936.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39155933900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 84th, minority 32th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 39155933900 considered part of McDonald Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39155933900 fall within McDonald Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39155933900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 30 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 39155933900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.15% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39155933900 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39155933900 compare to Girard overall?
Tract 39155933900 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Girard at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Girard; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39155933900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 15% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Girard
Top eight tracts in Girard ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related