Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
McDonald Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Girard
Tract 39155933900 · Trumbull County, OH · pop 1,936 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Tract 39155933900 sits in the McDonald Heights area of Girard, OH, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. Population here is 1,936. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units821
Renter share50.4%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate25.4%
Median income$34,054
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Girard and the region
Centroid at 41.1494, -80.7014 · click any tract to drill in
Why McDonald Heights scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Girard
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
25.4% poverty · this tract
6.3
Supply constraint
$703 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Girard
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Girard
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Girard
6.6
How McDonald Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 64
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 84%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 15%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 30Total filings over 1 yrs
- 11.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2016)
- 30Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within McDonald Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.9%Housing insecurity
- 14.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.8%Food insecurity
- 25.9%SNAP enrollment
- 12.9%Transit barriers
- 11.9%No health insurance
- 22.6%Frequent mental distress
- 37.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McDonald Heights
about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Trumbull County average of 39.0%. The clearest offset is state political climate at 2.4/10.
The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 1.3 points above the Trumbull County average of 4.1. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10.
SNAP participation runs 25.9% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.4/10.
The filing record is not thin: 30 evictions over 1 years of observation. Food insecurity runs 25.8% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 11.2% of renter households.
At $703 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Girard commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 11.2% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39155933900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39155933900?
Census tract 39155933900 in the McDonald Heights neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39155933900?
Median gross rent is $703/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39155933900?
25.4% of residents in tract 39155933900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,936.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39155933900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 84th, minority 32th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 39155933900 considered part of McDonald Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39155933900 fall within McDonald Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39155933900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 30 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 39155933900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.15% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39155933900 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39155933900 compare to Girard overall?
Tract 39155933900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Girard at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Girard; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39155933900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 15% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Girard
Top eight tracts in Girard ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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