Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #14,308 of 84,120 nationally
Southgate Eviction Risk: Elevated , Milwaukie
Tract 41005022201 · Clackamas County, OR · pop 5,706 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 6.7/10, tract 41005022201 in the Southgate area of Clackamas County, OR reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,706. The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6.7
Elevated
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 17%
Tract context
Occupied units2,741
Renter share83.7%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$48,931
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
National
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Milwaukie and the region
Centroid at 45.4454, -122.5746 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southgate scores 6.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Milwaukie
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,333 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Milwaukie
7.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Milwaukie
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Milwaukie
5.0
How Southgate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 99
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 732Total filings over 6 yrs
- 6.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.8%Peak (2007)
- 55Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 66% over the past 6 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Southgate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southgate
This is renter territory: 84% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1.7/10. Set annual rent against average income of $48,931 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Cost burden runs 58% here against 50.1% across Clackamas County. It sits 1.1 points above the Clackamas County average of 5.6. Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.2/10.
The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 732 eviction filings across 6 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2007 at 9.8% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 7.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 83% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 9.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 41005022201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41005022201?
Census tract 41005022201 in the Southgate neighborhood scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41005022201?
Median gross rent is $1,333/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41005022201?
19.6% of residents in tract 41005022201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,706.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41005022201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 95th, minority 53th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 41005022201 considered part of Southgate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41005022201 fall within Southgate (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41005022201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 732 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 41005022201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.96% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 41005022201 compare to Milwaukie overall?
Tract 41005022201 scores 6.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Milwaukie at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Milwaukie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 41005022201 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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