Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally
Saint Johns Eviction Risk: Moderate , Portland
Tract 41051007202 · Multnomah County, OR · pop 3,308 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Eviction risk in the Saint Johns neighborhood of Portland centers on tract 41051007202, which scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 3,308 residents. It lands near the 96th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 62% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,737 monthly, set against $85,938 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 39% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,530
Renter share39.1%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$85,938
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Portland and the region
Centroid at 45.6180, -122.7385 · click any tract to drill in
Why Saint Johns scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Portland
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,737 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Portland
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Portland
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Portland
8.5
How Saint Johns compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 68
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 610Total filings over 16 yrs
- 11.32%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.1%Peak (2009)
- 65Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 171% over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 537Total filings 2020-21
- 7.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.01×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Pittsburgh, PA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Saint Johns. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Saint Johns
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Portland eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Multnomah County average of 6.9 and above the Oregon statewide average of 6.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 68th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 2.01x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, above pre-pandemic levels.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 41051007202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41051007202?
Census tract 41051007202 in the Saint Johns neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41051007202?
Median gross rent is $1,737/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41051007202?
14.5% of residents in tract 41051007202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,308.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41051007202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 32th, minority 67th, housing 80th.
Q5
Is tract 41051007202 considered part of Saint Johns?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41051007202 fall within Saint Johns (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41051007202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 610 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41051007202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.32% of renter households, peaking at 16.1% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 41051007202 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.01× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Pittsburgh, PA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 41051007202 compare to Portland overall?
Tract 41051007202 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of Portland at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Portland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 41051007202 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Portland
Top eight tracts in Portland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OR
Gateway
7.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Chinatown
7.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Chinatown
7.6
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
University District
7.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Powellhurst
7.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Chinatown
7.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
University District
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
Powellhurst
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
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