Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Prospect Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lancaster
Tract 42071013505 · Lancaster County, PA · pop 3,802 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
42071013505 is a census tract in the Prospect Heights area of Millersville, PA. It scores 5.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,802. 31% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,553
Renter share38.1%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate16.2%
Median income$77,589
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
84
th percentile
High
Within state
74
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lancaster and the region
Centroid at 40.0173, -76.3349 · click any tract to drill in
Why Prospect Heights scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lancaster
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
16.2% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,285 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lancaster
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lancaster
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lancaster
7.5
How Prospect Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 4%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Prospect Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Prospect Heights
Cost burden runs 56% here against 41.1% across Lancaster County. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.6/10.
It sits 1.3 points above the Lancaster County average of 4.2. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lancaster. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,285, close to the Millersville average.
Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $77,589. 38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42071013505
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42071013505?
Census tract 42071013505 in the Prospect Heights neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42071013505?
Median gross rent is $1,285/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42071013505?
16.2% of residents in tract 42071013505 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,802.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42071013505?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 77th, minority 64th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 42071013505 considered part of Prospect Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42071013505 fall within Prospect Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 42071013505 compare to Lancaster overall?
Tract 42071013505 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lancaster at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lancaster eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 42071013505 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lancaster
Top eight tracts in Lancaster ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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