Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Sayre Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Bethlehem
Tract 42095018004 · Northampton County, PA · pop 3,941 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
42095018004 is a census tract in the Sayre Park area of Northampton County, PA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,941. 56% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,282
Renter share19.3%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$125,833
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
19
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
19
th percentile
Very Low
National
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region
Centroid at 40.5816, -75.3760 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sayre Park scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bethlehem
3.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,806 rent vs county FMR
7.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethlehem
3.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethlehem
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethlehem
5.0
How Sayre Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 31%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 19%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 2%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sayre Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sayre Park
Cost burden runs 69% here against 43.1% across Northampton County. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Against the Northampton County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.5 points. The voucher gap is 19.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 7/10. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Bethlehem. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.3/10. Against average income of $125,833, annual rent is just 17%.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 42095018004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095018004?
Census tract 42095018004 in the Sayre Park neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42095018004?
Median gross rent is $1,806/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42095018004?
2.8% of residents in tract 42095018004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,941.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42095018004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 37th, minority 19th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 42095018004 considered part of Sayre Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095018004 fall within Sayre Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 42095018004 compare to Bethlehem overall?
Tract 42095018004 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Bethlehem at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 42095018004 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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