Neighborhood · Ranked #75,086 of 84,120 nationally

Sayre Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Bethlehem

Tract 42095018004 · Northampton County, PA · pop 3,941 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

In Sayre Park in Bethlehem, census tract 42095018004 scores 5.6/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 60% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 69% of renter households, a severe level, and 56% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,806 a month while the average household earns $125,833 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 19% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

1.9

Lower

Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 6% Owners 81%

Tract context

Occupied units1,282

Renter share19.3%

SVI overall0.25

Poverty rate2.8%

Median income$125,833

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region

Centroid at 40.5816, -75.3760 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sayre Park scores 1.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bethlehem

3.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

Pennsylvania legislature & governorship

3.4

Economic stress

2.8% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,806 rent vs county FMR

7.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bethlehem

3.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bethlehem

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bethlehem

5.0

How Sayre Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 25

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

31%Socioeconomic
37%Household composition
19%Racial/ethnic minority
29%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
2%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sayre Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sayre Park

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Northampton County average of 5.6 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 25th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 42095018004

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095018004?

Census tract 42095018004 in the Sayre Park neighborhood scores 1.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 42095018004?

Median gross rent is $1,806/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 42095018004?

2.8% of residents in tract 42095018004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,941.

How socially vulnerable is tract 42095018004?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 37th, minority 19th, housing 29th.

Is tract 42095018004 considered part of Sayre Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095018004 fall within Sayre Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 42095018004 compare to Bethlehem overall?

Tract 42095018004 scores 1.9/10, lower than the parent city of Bethlehem at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 42095018004 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.