Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #4,396 of 84,120 nationally

Sayre Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bethlehem

Tract 42095011100 · Northampton County, PA · pop 3,622 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

The Sayre Park neighborhood of Bethlehem is where census tract 42095011100 sits, home to 3,622 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 7.1/10. On the national scale it ranks #4,090 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

46% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Renters make up 67% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
7.1
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 36% Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units75
Renter share66.7%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate38.3%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Sayre Park
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 19 tracts In Bethlehem
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 74 tracts In Northampton County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#23 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region

Centroid at 40.6046, -75.3781 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sayre Park scores 7.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bethlehem
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
38.3% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethlehem
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1

How Sayre Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Sayre Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 7.17.1This tracttract 011100Bethlehem: 4.24.2Bethlehemparent cityCounty: 3.43.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 21Total filings over 6 yrs
  • 7.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.3%Peak (2004)
  • 1Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420950111002000: 3 filings (6.14/100 renter HHs)2001: 4 filings (8.19/100 renter HHs)2002: 2 filings (4.09/100 renter HHs)2003: 4 filings (8.19/100 renter HHs)2004: 7 filings (14.33/100 renter HHs)2005: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2006: 1 filings (5.98/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 67% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sayre Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sayre Park

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 9.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores well above the Northampton County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 21 eviction filings here over 6 tracked years, with about 7.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.3% of renter households in 2004.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42095011100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095011100?

Census tract 42095011100 in the Sayre Park neighborhood scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 42095011100?

38.3% of residents in tract 42095011100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,622.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 42095011100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 2th, minority 54th, housing 55th.
Q4

Is tract 42095011100 considered part of Sayre Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095011100 fall within Sayre Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42095011100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 42095011100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.82% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

How does tract 42095011100 compare to Bethlehem overall?

Tract 42095011100 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Bethlehem at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7

Was tract 42095011100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bethlehem

Top eight tracts in Bethlehem ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related