Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Sayre Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bethlehem
Tract 42095011100 · Northampton County, PA · pop 3,622 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 42095011100 sits in the Sayre Park area of Bethlehem eviction risk, PA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.3/10. Severe burden reaches 38%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units75
Renter share66.7%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate38.3%
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bethlehem and the region
Centroid at 40.6046, -75.3781 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sayre Park scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bethlehem
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
38.3% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethlehem
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethlehem
7.1
How Sayre Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 55%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 19%Grade B
- 5%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 21Total filings over 6 yrs
- 7.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.3%Peak (2004)
- 1Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 67% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sayre Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sayre Park
It sits 2.8 points above the Northampton County average of 4.5. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.6/10. The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.1/10. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10.
Court records carry 21 eviction filings across 6 observed years. Filings peaked in 2004 at 14.3% of renter households.
This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Bethlehem. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 7.8% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42095011100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42095011100?
Census tract 42095011100 in the Sayre Park neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 42095011100?
38.3% of residents in tract 42095011100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,622.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 42095011100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 2th, minority 54th, housing 55th.
Q4
Is tract 42095011100 considered part of Sayre Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42095011100 fall within Sayre Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42095011100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 42095011100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.82% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
How does tract 42095011100 compare to Bethlehem overall?
Tract 42095011100 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Bethlehem at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethlehem eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 42095011100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bethlehem
Top eight tracts in Bethlehem ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
South Side
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Elliott Heights
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Clearfield Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Central Bethlehem
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic Bethlehem
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic South Bethlehem
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Historic South Bethlehem
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Brinker Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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