Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
Melody Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Valley Falls
Tract 45083021806 · Spartanburg County, SC · pop 3,565 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 45083021806 belongs to the Melody Creek area of Valley Falls, South Carolina. It is home to 3,565 residents and scores 6.1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 77% of US census tracts.
36% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $804 monthly, set against $45,446 in average yearly household income, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 80% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 52%
Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units1,017
Renter share80.0%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate25.4%
Median income$45,446
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Valley Falls and the region
Centroid at 35.0049, -81.9625 · click any tract to drill in
Why Melody Creek scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Valley Falls
4.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
South Carolina legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
25.4% poverty · this tract
6.3
Supply constraint
$804 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Valley Falls
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Valley Falls
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Valley Falls
7.6
How Melody Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 93%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.4%Housing insecurity
- 14.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 30.4%Food insecurity
- 19.5%SNAP enrollment
- 16.7%Transit barriers
- 15.3%No health insurance
- 24.5%Frequent mental distress
- 37.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Melody Creek
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Valley Falls, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Spartanburg County average of 5.5 and above the South Carolina statewide average of 5.5. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 21.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 71st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 45083021806
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 45083021806?
Census tract 45083021806 in the Melody Creek neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 45083021806?
Median gross rent is $804/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 45083021806?
25.4% of residents in tract 45083021806 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,565.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 45083021806?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 3th, minority 69th, housing 93th.
Q5
Is tract 45083021806 considered part of Melody Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 45083021806 fall within Melody Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 45083021806 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 45083021806 compare to Valley Falls overall?
Tract 45083021806 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Valley Falls at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Valley Falls; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Valley Falls
Top eight tracts in Valley Falls ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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