Ovilla Eviction Risk: Lower

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. It sits 1.0 points below the Ellis County average of 4.0.

That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 17% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $117,384, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.

Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $1,611, close to the Ovilla average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.