Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,889 of 84,120 nationally
Drewrys Bluff Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bellwood
Tract 51041100406 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 1,565 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51041100406 (Drewrys Bluff in Bellwood, Virginia) comes in at 7.3/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 97th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
81% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,032 a month while the average household earns $38,813 a year, roughly 32% of income at the averages. Renters make up 73% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 60%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 26%
Tract context
Occupied units791
Renter share73.5%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate28.2%
Median income$38,813
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bellwood and the region
Centroid at 37.4198, -77.4455 · click any tract to drill in
Why Drewrys Bluff scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bellwood
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
28.2% poverty · this tract
7.0
Supply constraint
$1,032 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bellwood
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bellwood
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bellwood
8.3
How Drewrys Bluff compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 100%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,040Total filings over 7 yrs
- 35.47%Avg annual filing rate
- 50.8%Peak (2013)
- 90Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 34% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Drewrys Bluff. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 26.9%Housing insecurity
- 19.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 35.2%Food insecurity
- 34.9%SNAP enrollment
- 17.6%Transit barriers
- 18.4%No health insurance
- 21.8%Frequent mental distress
- 44.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Drewrys Bluff
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bellwood, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores well above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,040 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 35.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 50.8% of renter households in 2013.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100406
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100406?
Census tract 51041100406 in the Drewrys Bluff neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100406?
Median gross rent is $1,032/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 81% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100406?
28.2% of residents in tract 51041100406 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,565.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100406?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 100th, minority 77th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100406 considered part of Drewrys Bluff?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100406 fall within Drewrys Bluff (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100406?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,040 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100406 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 35.47% of renter households, peaking at 50.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100406 struggle to pay rent?
About 26.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100406 compare to Bellwood overall?
Tract 51041100406 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Bellwood at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bellwood; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bellwood
Top eight tracts in Bellwood ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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