Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Tinsberry Trace Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chester
Tract 51041100508 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 5,375 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51041100508 is a census tract in the Tinsberry Trace area of Chesterfield County, VA. It scores 4.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 5,375. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units2,064
Renter share24.4%
SVI overall0.35
Poverty rate6.5%
Median income$88,438
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
National
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chester and the region
Centroid at 37.3090, -77.4158 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tinsberry Trace scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chester
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.5% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,424 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chester
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chester
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chester
5.0
How Tinsberry Trace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 35
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 46%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,747Total filings over 7 yrs
- 42.22%Avg annual filing rate
- 49.3%Peak (2014)
- 209Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tinsberry Trace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.0%Housing insecurity
- 8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 11.6%SNAP enrollment
- 8.1%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 17.8%Frequent mental distress
- 29.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tinsberry Trace
Cost burden runs 28% here against 42.3% across Chesterfield County. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.6/10. 9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,747 filings here across 7 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2014, when 49.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 42.2% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #42,813 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 24% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.1/10. It tracks the Chesterfield County average of 4.2 closely.
Average gross rent runs $1,424 a month. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $88,438.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100508
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100508?
Census tract 51041100508 in the Tinsberry Trace neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100508?
Median gross rent is $1,424/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100508?
6.5% of residents in tract 51041100508 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,375.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100508?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 46th, minority 57th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100508 considered part of Tinsberry Trace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100508 fall within Tinsberry Trace (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100508?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,747 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100508 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 42.22% of renter households, peaking at 49.3% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100508 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100508 compare to Chester overall?
Tract 51041100508 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Chester at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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