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Neighborhood · Ranked #69,776 of 84,120 nationally

Tinsberry Trace Eviction Risk: Lower , Chester

Tract 51041100506 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,434 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Tract 51041100506, home to 6,434 residents in the Tinsberry Trace neighborhood of Chester, scores $1/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 74% of US census tracts.

51% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,220 monthly, set against $94,907 in average yearly household income, roughly 15% of income at the averages. About 18% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
2.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 9% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,395
Renter share18.2%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate9.3%
Median income$94,907

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Tinsberry Trace
Very Low
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Chester
High
Within county
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#38 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
Moderate
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,297 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chester and the region

Centroid at 37.3228, -77.4149 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tinsberry Trace scores 2.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chester
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.3% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,220 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chester
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chester
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chester
5.6

How Tinsberry Trace compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tinsberry Trace risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.32.3This tracttract 100506Chester: 3.23.2Chesterparent cityCounty: 2.42.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,060Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 22.81%Avg annual filing rate
  • 53.5%Peak (2016)
  • 334Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510411005062010: 112 filings (21.66/100 renter HHs)2011: 90 filings (12.38/100 renter HHs)2012: 143 filings (19.67/100 renter HHs)2013: 120 filings (16.51/100 renter HHs)2014: 121 filings (16.64/100 renter HHs)2015: 140 filings (19.26/100 renter HHs)2016: 334 filings (53.53/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 198% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tinsberry Trace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tinsberry Trace

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 72nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100506

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100506?

Census tract 51041100506 in the Tinsberry Trace neighborhood scores 2.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100506?

Median gross rent is $1,220/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100506?

9.3% of residents in tract 51041100506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,434.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100506?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 77th, minority 74th, housing 63th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100506 considered part of Tinsberry Trace?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100506 fall within Tinsberry Trace (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100506?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,060 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100506 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.81% of renter households, peaking at 53.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100506 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100506 compare to Chester overall?

Tract 51041100506 scores 2.3/10, lower than the parent city of Chester at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chester

Top eight tracts in Chester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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