Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
Cameron Bay Eviction Risk: Lower , Brandermill
Tract 51041101013 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 3,881 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 51041101013 sits in the Cameron Bay area of Chesterfield County, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.2/10. Population here is 3,881. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 65% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,338
Renter share2.4%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$142,611
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
30
th percentile
Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
National
25
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brandermill and the region
Centroid at 37.3956, -77.6264 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cameron Bay scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brandermill
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandermill
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandermill
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandermill
5.0
How Cameron Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 38%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 7 yrs
- 12.48%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.7%Peak (2011)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 100% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cameron Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.8%Food insecurity
- 6.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 15.5%Frequent mental distress
- 26.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cameron Bay
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.5/10. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.0 points. Food insecurity runs 8.8% against 17.8% nationally.
Court records carry 26 eviction filings across 7 observed years. SNAP participation runs 6.9% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2011 at 20.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 12.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 25th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 2% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041101013
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041101013?
Census tract 51041101013 in the Cameron Bay neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041101013?
6.2% of residents in tract 51041101013 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,881.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041101013?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 40th, minority 38th, housing 3th.
Q4
Is tract 51041101013 considered part of Cameron Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041101013 fall within Cameron Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041101013?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041101013 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.48% of renter households, peaking at 20.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51041101013 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51041101013 compare to Brandermill overall?
Tract 51041101013 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Brandermill at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandermill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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