Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,113 of 84,120 nationally
Cameron Bay Eviction Risk: Lower , Brandermill
Tract 51041101012 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 5,446 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51041101012 runs through the Cameron Bay area of Brandermill. With 5,446 residents, it scores 6.2/10 for landlords. It lands near the 79th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,717 a month while the average household earns $90,341 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 41% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units2,133
Renter share41.4%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate12.6%
Median income$90,341
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brandermill and the region
Centroid at 37.4097, -77.6339 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cameron Bay scores 2.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brandermill
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.6% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,717 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandermill
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandermill
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandermill
4.6
How Cameron Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 49%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 37%Racial/ethnic minority
- 31%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 758Total filings over 7 yrs
- 10.39%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.3%Peak (2013)
- 67Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cameron Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.7%Housing insecurity
- 7.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.6%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 18.6%Frequent mental distress
- 27.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cameron Bay
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Brandermill, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 758 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 10.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.3% of renter households in 2013.
In CDC survey modeling, about 11.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041101012
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041101012?
Census tract 51041101012 in the Cameron Bay neighborhood scores 2.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041101012?
Median gross rent is $1,717/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041101012?
12.6% of residents in tract 51041101012 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,446.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041101012?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 21th, minority 37th, housing 31th.
Q5
Is tract 51041101012 considered part of Cameron Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041101012 fall within Cameron Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041101012?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 758 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041101012 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.39% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041101012 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041101012 compare to Brandermill overall?
Tract 51041101012 scores 2.6/10, lower than the parent city of Brandermill at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandermill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brandermill
Top eight tracts in Brandermill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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