Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Valley View Eviction Risk: Elevated , Groveton
Tract 51059421400 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,740 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51059421400 sits in the Valley View area of Groveton, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. Population here is 6,740. It sits 2.2 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units2,242
Renter share76.8%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate24.4%
Median income$82,021
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
93
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Groveton and the region
Centroid at 38.7687, -77.0875 · click any tract to drill in
Why Valley View scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Groveton
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.4% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$1,740 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Groveton
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Groveton
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Groveton
6.1
How Valley View compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 88
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 904Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.59%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.8%Peak (2011)
- 245Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.7%Housing insecurity
- 12.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.7%Food insecurity
- 20.5%SNAP enrollment
- 12.7%Transit barriers
- 18.4%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 32.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Valley View
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10. 77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10.
The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 904 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Food insecurity runs 25.7% against 17.8% nationally. Adults with no health insurance runs 18.4% against 11.3% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 12.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 10.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059421400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421400?
Census tract 51059421400 in the Valley View neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059421400?
Median gross rent is $1,740/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421400?
24.4% of residents in tract 51059421400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,740.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 74th, minority 85th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51059421400 considered part of Valley View?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421400 fall within Valley View (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 904 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.59% of renter households, peaking at 12.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059421400 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059421400 compare to Groveton overall?
Tract 51059421400 scores 6.5/10, higher than the parent city of Groveton at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Groveton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Groveton
Top eight tracts in Groveton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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