Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Groveton Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51059421300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,825 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
51059421300 is a census tract in the Groveton Heights area of Groveton, VA. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,825 residents. At $2,885 a month, rents run 59% over what the rest of Groveton commands.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,436
Renter share6.7%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$156,042
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Groveton and the region
Centroid at 38.7575, -77.1138 · click any tract to drill in
Why Groveton Heights scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Groveton
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,885 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Groveton
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Groveton
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Groveton
6.1
How Groveton Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2011)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 13.0%Frequent mental distress
- 22.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Groveton Heights
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. The voucher gap is 24.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10. SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 4.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 7% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 2.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059421300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421300?
Census tract 51059421300 in the Groveton Heights neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059421300?
Median gross rent is $2,885/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421300?
4.1% of residents in tract 51059421300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,825.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 14th, minority 64th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 51059421300 considered part of Groveton Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421300 fall within Groveton Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.94% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059421300 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059421300 compare to Groveton overall?
Tract 51059421300 scores 4.6/10, lower than the parent city of Groveton at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Groveton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Groveton
Top eight tracts in Groveton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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