Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Bucknell Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Groveton
Tract 51059415300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,088 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51059415300 sits in the Bucknell Manor area of Groveton, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. Population here is 4,088. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,693
Renter share32.5%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$106,979
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Groveton and the region
Centroid at 38.7668, -77.0699 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bucknell Manor scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Groveton
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,099 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Groveton
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Groveton
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Groveton
6.1
How Bucknell Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 29Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2012)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 60% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 6.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.7%Transit barriers
- 9.0%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bucknell Manor
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.7/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. SNAP participation runs 6.5% against 15.2% nationally. At $2,099 a month, rents run 15% over what the rest of Groveton commands.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 29 filings here across 4 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2012 at 3.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059415300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059415300?
Census tract 51059415300 in the Bucknell Manor neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059415300?
Median gross rent is $2,099/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059415300?
6.8% of residents in tract 51059415300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,088.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059415300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 88th, minority 68th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 51059415300 considered part of Bucknell Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059415300 fall within Bucknell Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059415300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059415300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.89% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059415300 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059415300 compare to Groveton overall?
Tract 51059415300 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Groveton at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Groveton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Groveton
Top eight tracts in Groveton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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