Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Laurel Crest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lorton
Tract 51059422101 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,070 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 5.7/10, tract 51059422101 in the Laurel Crest area of Lorton, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,070 residents. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units2,354
Renter share45.2%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate15.4%
Median income$119,754
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorton and the region
Centroid at 38.7084, -77.2112 · click any tract to drill in
Why Laurel Crest scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorton
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.4% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$2,405 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorton
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorton
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorton
5.7
How Laurel Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 50%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 550Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.77%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.9%Peak (2011)
- 120Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 29% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.9%Housing insecurity
- 10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.4%Food insecurity
- 15.2%SNAP enrollment
- 9.8%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Laurel Crest
Cost burden runs 50% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 7.5/10.
It sits 1.4 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 550 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10. The worst year on record was 2011, when 12.9% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 10.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
Average gross rent is $2,405, close to the Lorton average. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $119,754.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059422101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422101?
Census tract 51059422101 in the Laurel Crest neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059422101?
Median gross rent is $2,405/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422101?
15.4% of residents in tract 51059422101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,070.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 32th, minority 79th, housing 50th.
Q5
Is tract 51059422101 considered part of Laurel Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422101 fall within Laurel Crest (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422101?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 550 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422101 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.77% of renter households, peaking at 12.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059422101 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059422101 compare to Lorton overall?
Tract 51059422101 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Lorton at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorton
Top eight tracts in Lorton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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