Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
Pohick Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Newington
Tract 51059432600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,924 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059432600 sits in the Pohick Hills area of Newington Forest, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.2/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 19% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units1,589
Renter share6.0%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate0.3%
Median income$189,688
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
7
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newington and the region
Centroid at 38.7488, -77.2327 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pohick Hills scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newington
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,875 rent vs county FMR
7.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newington
2.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newington
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newington
2.7
How Pohick Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 4%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.35%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.8%Peak (2012)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Pohick Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.5%Housing insecurity
- 3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.6%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.4%No health insurance
- 11.1%Frequent mental distress
- 18.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pohick Hills
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 24.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Disability prevalence runs 18.8% against 31.5% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
It sits 1.1 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. On the high side, supply constraint reads 7.4/10. The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Housing insecurity runs 5.5% against 14.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 12 filings here across 4 tracked years. Average gross rent is $2,875, 10% above the Newington Forest average.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 3.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432600?
Census tract 51059432600 in the Pohick Hills neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432600?
Median gross rent is $2,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 19% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432600?
0.3% of residents in tract 51059432600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,924.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 19th, minority 60th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432600 considered part of Pohick Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432600 fall within Pohick Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.35% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432600 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432600 compare to Newington overall?
Tract 51059432600 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Newington at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newington; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newington
Top eight tracts in Newington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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