Pohick Hills Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 23.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. On the high side is supply constraint at 7.3/10. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 6.0% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

Court records carry 29 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. Against a Newington baseline of 22.7%, 19% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

3.8% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Well under the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.9/10. The worst year on record was 2012, when filings touched 3.8% of renter households.

Recent filings have not receded much: 4.0% in 2016 against a 3.8% peak. At 8% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, Newberry Station and Rollingwood score within a fraction of it.

Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.2 points apart at the extremes.

With little internal variation, 3.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.