Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Springfield Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower , Lorton
Tract 51059432702 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,175 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51059432702 covers part of the Springfield Oaks area of Newington, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,667
Renter share14.5%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate2.6%
Median income$130,089
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
30
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorton and the region
Centroid at 38.7280, -77.2130 · click any tract to drill in
Why Springfield Oaks scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorton
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,444 rent vs county FMR
5.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorton
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorton
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorton
3.2
How Springfield Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 49Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2011)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Springfield Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.3%Food insecurity
- 7.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 8.3%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 23.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Springfield Oaks
Cost burden runs 31% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.8/10. Court records carry 49 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. SNAP participation runs 7.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Average gross rent is $2,444, 13% below the Newington average. The worst year on record was 2011, when 4.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 3.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 31% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.5/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432702?
Census tract 51059432702 in the Springfield Oaks neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432702?
Median gross rent is $2,444/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432702?
2.6% of residents in tract 51059432702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,175.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 32th, minority 71th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432702 considered part of Springfield Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432702 fall within Springfield Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 49 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.69% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432702 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432702 compare to Lorton overall?
Tract 51059432702 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Lorton at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorton
Top eight tracts in Lorton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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