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Neighborhood · Lorton, VA

Springfield Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 8,219 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.4/10 · range 1.1–1.7

Springfield Oaks is a white-hispanic neighborhood in Lorton with 2 census tracts and a population of 8,219 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.4/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 42% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 27% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,964/month sits 16% higher than the Lorton citywide average ($2,548).

Risk score
1.4
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Springfield Oaks vs Lorton How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
41.9% +30%
Lorton: 32.2%
Average gross rent
$2,964 +16%
Lorton: $2,548
Average HH income
$135,223 -1%
Lorton: $136,719
Poverty rate
6.8% -28%
Lorton: 9.5%
Renter share
27.6% -23%
Lorton: 35.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Springfield Oaks and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 1.1–1.7

Why Springfield Oaks scores 1.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Rent control risk
42% of income on rent · Range 4.2–6.4 across tracts
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.8–2.9 across tracts
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
28% renter households · Range 3.2–7.5 across tracts
5.3
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.2–5.7 across tracts
4.4
Economic stress
6.8% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.8 across tracts
1.9
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.6–10.0 across tracts
7.8
Risk score comparison

Springfield Oaks vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Springfield Oaks score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Springfield Oaks: 1.41.4Springfield OaksNeighborhoodParent city: 3.73.7Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Springfield Oaks

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059422000 1.7 4,044 53% $3,501
51059432702 1.1 4,175 31% $2,444
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 46

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 41%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 54%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 74%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 43%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Springfield Oaks

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 68Total filings (sum)
  • 2.37%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.0%Peak year (2016)
  • 2.96%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Springfield Oaks

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Springfield Oaks

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Springfield Oaks?

Springfield Oaks scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Springfield Oaks compare to Lorton overall?

Springfield Oaks scores 2.3 points lower than Lorton overall (3.7/10). Renters spend 42% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,964 vs $2,548.
Q3

What is the average rent in Springfield Oaks?

Average gross rent in Springfield eviction risk Oaks is $2,964/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Springfield Oaks residents are renters?

28% of Springfield Oaks households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Lorton). The neighborhood has 8,219 residents.
Q5

Is Springfield Oaks a high social-vulnerability area?

Springfield Oaks sits in the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Springfield Oaks have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Springfield Oaks is census tract 51059422000 (score 1.7/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.1 to 1.7, a spread of 0.6 points.
Q7

How safe is Springfield Oaks for landlords?

Springfield eviction risk Oaks carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.4/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Lorton as a whole (3.7/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Springfield Oaks?

Springfield Oaks has 8,585 residents (White-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (36.7%), Hispanic / Latino (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (16.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Springfield Oaks

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Lorton

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Springfield Oaks.

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