2 census tracts · pop 8,219 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10
· range 3.5–4.8
Springfield Oaks takes in 2 census tracts of Lorton, VA and houses 8,219 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.1/10, in the Moderate tier. Severe burden reaches 27%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.
42% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, above the Lorton rate of 32.2%. The voucher gap is 28.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.
The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1.9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint is supply constraint at 7.8/10.
The 2 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.5 to 4.8, a 1.3-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. Average gross rent is $2,964, 16% above the Lorton average of $2,548.
Filings are well documented here: 68 across 2 observed tracts. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.8/10.
Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 4.0% of renter households. Judgments average 1.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.
At 28% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, Gunston Heights and Laurel Crest score within a fraction of it.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.3 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Springfield Oaks vs LortonHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority74%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport43%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Springfield Oaks
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
68Total filings (sum)
2.37%Avg annual filing rate
4.0%Peak year (2016)
2.96%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Springfield Oaks
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
9.7%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility shutoff threat
11.2%Food insecurity
7.8%SNAP enrollment
8.6%No health insurance
27.2%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Springfield Oaks
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Springfield Oaks?
Springfield Oaks scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Springfield Oaks compare to Lorton overall?
Springfield Oaks scores 0.5 points lower than Lorton overall (4.6/10). Renters spend 42% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,964 vs $2,548.
Q3
What is the average rent in Springfield Oaks?
Average gross rent in Springfield eviction risk Oaks is $2,964/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Springfield Oaks residents are renters?
28% of Springfield Oaks households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Lorton). The neighborhood has 8,219 residents.
Q5
Is Springfield Oaks a high social-vulnerability area?
Springfield Oaks sits in the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Springfield Oaks have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Springfield Oaks is census tract 51059422000 (score 4.8/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.5 to 4.8, a spread of 1.3 points.
Q7
How safe is Springfield Oaks for landlords?
Springfield eviction risk Oaks carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Lorton as a whole (4.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Springfield Oaks?
Springfield Oaks has 8,585 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (36.7%), Hispanic / Latino (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (16.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
