Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Springfield Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lorton
Tract 51059422000 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,044 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51059422000 is a census tract in the Springfield Oaks area of Lorton, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,044 residents. The severe-burden share is 40%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,304
Renter share41.2%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$140,523
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorton and the region
Centroid at 38.7241, -77.1937 · click any tract to drill in
Why Springfield Oaks scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorton
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorton
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorton
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorton
5.7
How Springfield Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 77
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.01%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.6%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 133% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Springfield Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.0%Food insecurity
- 7.8%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 12.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Springfield Oaks
What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. At $3,501 a month, rents run 37% over what the rest of Lorton commands.
53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 19 filings here across 4 tracked years.
SNAP participation runs 7.8% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 1.6% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059422000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422000?
Census tract 51059422000 in the Springfield Oaks neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059422000?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422000?
11.0% of residents in tract 51059422000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,044.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 77th, minority 77th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 51059422000 considered part of Springfield Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422000 fall within Springfield Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.01% of renter households, peaking at 1.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059422000 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059422000 compare to Lorton overall?
Tract 51059422000 scores 4.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Lorton at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorton
Top eight tracts in Lorton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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