Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Pinecrest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Reston
Tract 51059451900 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,531 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51059451900 is a census tract in the Pinecrest area of Lincolnia, VA. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units2,038
Renter share42.0%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate3.7%
Median income$112,813
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Reston and the region
Centroid at 38.8234, -77.1544 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pinecrest scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Reston
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,065 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Reston
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Reston
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Reston
5.4
How Pinecrest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 736Total filings over 4 yrs
- 24.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 32.3%Peak (2011)
- 212Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Pinecrest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.2%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 7.0%No health insurance
- 12.1%Frequent mental distress
- 20.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pinecrest
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10.
14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. Cost burden runs 47% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Food insecurity runs 8.2% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 736 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2011 at 32.3% of renter households.
In a typical year about 24.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 5.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451900?
Census tract 51059451900 in the Pinecrest neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451900?
Median gross rent is $2,065/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451900?
3.7% of residents in tract 51059451900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,531.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 41th, minority 73th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451900 considered part of Pinecrest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451900 fall within Pinecrest (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 736 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 24.24% of renter households, peaking at 32.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451900 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451900 compare to Reston overall?
Tract 51059451900 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Reston at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Reston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Reston
Top eight tracts in Reston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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