Neighborhood · Reston, VA

Pinecrest Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 11,849 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10 · range 3.8–4.6

Pinecrest is a 3-tract neighborhood of Reston, VA, population 11,849. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.1/10, in the Moderate tier. The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1.1/10.

Cost burden runs around a third against 25.1% citywide, putting Pinecrest 8.7% over its own city. 20% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 8.2/10.

Court records carry 764 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts. Food insecurity affects 6.1% of adults, 11.7 points below the national rate. 3.7% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.9/10. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 66.7% of renter households. Among the 8 mapped neighborhoods of Reston, it ranks #6 by risk, the lower third.

Judgments average 2.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Colvin's Glen and Deepwood.

With little internal variation, 4.1/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

3 tracts · population-weighted

Pinecrest vs Reston How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

33.8% +35%

Reston: 25.1%

Average gross rent

$2,127 -5%

Reston: $2,231

Average HH income

$160,648 +15%

Reston: $139,515

Poverty rate

4.0% -26%

Reston: 5.4%

Renter share

31.3% -21%

Reston: 39.4%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Pinecrest and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3.8–4.6

Why Pinecrest scores 4.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.2–8.3 across tracts

7.6

Rent control risk

34% of income on rent · Range 4.3–6.1 across tracts

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–2.9 across tracts

2.9

Tenant organizing strength

31% renter households · Range 8.0–8.6 across tracts

8.2

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 3.8–5.4 across tracts

4.4

Economic stress

4.0% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.3 across tracts

1.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.9–4.6 across tracts

4.2

Risk score comparison

Pinecrest vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Pinecrest?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.8 points from 3.8 to 4.6. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

4.6 3.9 3.8

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Pinecrest

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51059451900	4.6	4,531	47%	$2,065
51059482301	3.9	5,189	25%	$2,145
51059482400	3.8	2,129	29%	$2,214

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 27

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 24%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 23%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 56%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 37%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Pinecrest

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

764Total filings (sum)
16.14%Avg annual filing rate
66.7%Peak year (2016)
22.61%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Pinecrest

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

6.3%Housing insecurity
3.9%Utility shutoff threat
6.4%Food insecurity
4.0%SNAP enrollment
5.5%No health insurance
19.9%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Pinecrest

What is the eviction-risk score for Pinecrest?

Pinecrest scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Pinecrest compare to Reston overall?

Pinecrest scores 0.2 points lower than Reston overall (4.3/10). Renters spend 34% of income on rent vs 25% citywide. Average rent: $2,127 vs $2,231.

What is the average rent in Pinecrest?

Average gross rent in Pinecrest is $2,127/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Pinecrest residents are renters?

31% of Pinecrest households are renter-occupied (vs 39% in Reston). The neighborhood has 11,849 residents.

Is Pinecrest a high social-vulnerability area?

Pinecrest sits in the 27th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Pinecrest have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Pinecrest is census tract 51059451900 (score 4.6/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.8 to 4.6, a spread of 0.8 points.

How safe is Pinecrest for landlords?

Pinecrest carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Reston as a whole (4.3/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

What is the demographic breakdown of Pinecrest?

Pinecrest has 11,790 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (60.4%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (19.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (9.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Pinecrest

3.7 Franklin 2 tracts · pop 8,173 4.6 Tysons Green 2 tracts · pop 7,706 3.6 Stonewall Manor 2 tracts · pop 7,287 3.4 Sun Valley 2 tracts · pop 6,804 4.2 Fairlee 4 tracts · pop 16,145 5.7 Old Courthouse 2 tracts · pop 6,069

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Reston

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Pinecrest.

4 Colvin's Glen 1 tracts · pop 6,132 4.2 Deepwood 4 tracts · pop 17,030 4.3 Sunset Hills 4 tracts · pop 11,909 3.8 Woodcrest Cluster 1 tracts · pop 1,781 4.4 Halley Rise 2 tracts · pop 7,478 4.4 Lake Anne Village 3 tracts · pop 8,797

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