Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Hickory Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Great Falls
Tract 51059480401 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,624 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51059480401 is a census tract in the Hickory Creek area of Great Falls, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,624 residents. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,497
Renter share4.9%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Great Falls and the region
Centroid at 38.9903, -77.3068 · click any tract to drill in
Why Hickory Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Great Falls
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Great Falls
2.1
How Hickory Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.01%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.7%Peak (2011)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 3.8%Housing insecurity
- 2.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.0%Food insecurity
- 2.2%SNAP enrollment
- 2.9%Transit barriers
- 3.3%No health insurance
- 9.9%Frequent mental distress
- 18.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Hickory Creek
The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. Housing insecurity runs 3.8% against 14.2% nationally.
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 47% of renters here are cost-burdened. Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 2.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480401?
Census tract 51059480401 in the Hickory Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480401?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480401?
0.4% of residents in tract 51059480401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 42th, minority 55th, housing 0th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480401 considered part of Hickory Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480401 fall within Hickory Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.01% of renter households, peaking at 2.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480401 struggle to pay rent?
About 3.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480401 compare to Great Falls overall?
Tract 51059480401 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Great Falls at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Great Falls; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Great Falls
Top eight tracts in Great Falls ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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