1 census tracts · pop 4,624 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10
· range 3–3
Hickory Creek maps to a single census tract in Great Falls, VA and houses 4,624 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 3/10, placing it in the Lower tier. Against a Great Falls baseline of 19.1%, 47% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
What pushes the score up most is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.
On the softer side is economic stress, at 1/10. 16% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 3.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.1/10.
Food insecurity affects 4.0% of adults, 13.8 points below the national rate. The filing record is not thin: 10 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2011, when filings touched 2.7% of renter households.
Recent filings have not receded much: 5.8% in 2016 against a 2.7% peak. Only 5% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. For a like-for-like read, Timberlake Run and Tally-Ho score within a fraction of it.
Against average income of $250,001, annual rent is only 17%, a wide affordability cushion.
One tract means one number: 3/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
3
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Hickory Creek vs Great FallsHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority55%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport0%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Hickory Creek
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
10Total filings (sum)
3.01%Avg annual filing rate
2.7%Peak year (2011)
5.77%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Hickory Creek
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
3.8%Housing insecurity
2.5%Utility shutoff threat
4.0%Food insecurity
2.2%SNAP enrollment
3.3%No health insurance
18.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Hickory Creek
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Hickory Creek?
Hickory Creek scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Hickory Creek compare to Great Falls overall?
Hickory Creek scores 0.6 points lower than Great Falls overall (3.6/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 19% citywide. Average rent: $3,501 vs $3,501.
Q3
What is the average rent in Hickory Creek?
Average gross rent in Hickory Creek is $3,501/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Hickory Creek residents are renters?
5% of Hickory Creek households are renter-occupied (vs 5% in Great Falls). The neighborhood has 4,624 residents.
Q5
Is Hickory Creek a high social-vulnerability area?
Hickory Creek sits in the 3rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Hickory Creek for landlords?
Hickory Creek carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Great Falls as a whole (3.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Hickory Creek?
Hickory Creek has 4,736 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (62.2%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (30.1%), Hispanic / Latino (4.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
