Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Discovery Square Eviction Risk: Lower , Floris
Tract 51059482505 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,315 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059482505 is a census tract in the Discovery Square area of Sully Square, VA. It scores 3.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,315 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,282
Renter share43.1%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate1.9%
Median income$176,736
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
34
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Floris and the region
Centroid at 38.9219, -77.4264 · click any tract to drill in
Why Discovery Square scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Floris
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,223 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Floris
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Floris
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Floris
3.0
How Discovery Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 86%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Discovery Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.7%Housing insecurity
- 3.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.7%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 4.5%No health insurance
- 10.5%Frequent mental distress
- 18.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Discovery Square
24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. SNAP participation runs 3.7% against 15.2% nationally.
On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.7% against 14.2% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Nationally it ranks #56,048 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $176,736, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 38% of renters. Average gross rent is $2,223, close to the Sully Square average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482505
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482505?
Census tract 51059482505 in the Discovery Square neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059482505?
Median gross rent is $2,223/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482505?
1.9% of residents in tract 51059482505 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,315.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482505?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 72th, minority 78th, housing 86th.
Q5
Is tract 51059482505 considered part of Discovery Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482505 fall within Discovery Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059482505 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059482505 compare to Floris overall?
Tract 51059482505 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Floris at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Floris; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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