Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Discovery Square Eviction Risk: Lower , Floris
Tract 51059482503 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,796 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51059482503 covers part of the Discovery Square area of Floris, VA, and scores 3.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,796. The severe-burden share is 46%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,564
Renter share14.6%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$210,400
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Floris and the region
Centroid at 38.9208, -77.4081 · click any tract to drill in
Why Discovery Square scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Floris
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,363 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Floris
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Floris
3.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Floris
5.3
How Discovery Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 8Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.66%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.6%Peak (2011)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Discovery Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.0%Housing insecurity
- 3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.6%Food insecurity
- 3.1%SNAP enrollment
- 3.6%Transit barriers
- 4.0%No health insurance
- 10.7%Frequent mental distress
- 17.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Discovery Square
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. At $2,363 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of Floris commands.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 8 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Adults with no health insurance runs 4.0% against 11.3% nationally.
It sits 0.7 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 1.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.7% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482503
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482503?
Census tract 51059482503 in the Discovery Square neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059482503?
Median gross rent is $2,363/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482503?
3.8% of residents in tract 51059482503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,796.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482503?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 31th, minority 64th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51059482503 considered part of Discovery Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482503 fall within Discovery Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059482503?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 8 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059482503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.66% of renter households, peaking at 1.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059482503 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059482503 compare to Floris overall?
Tract 51059482503 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Floris at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Floris; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Floris
Top eight tracts in Floris ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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