Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Virginia Run Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059491101 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,418 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Census tract 51059491101 covers part of the Virginia Run area of Fairfax County, VA, and scores 3.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,418 residents. The voucher gap is 35.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,243
Renter share4.6%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.7%
Median income$235,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairfax County and the region
Centroid at 38.8570, -77.4842 · click any tract to drill in
Why Virginia Run scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,125 rent vs county FMR
8.5
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Virginia Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 3 yrs
- 3.98%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.0%Peak (2011)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Virginia Run. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.2%Housing insecurity
- 3.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.8%Food insecurity
- 3.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 11.5%Frequent mental distress
- 20.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Virginia Run
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, supply constraint reads 8.5/10. Food insecurity runs 5.8% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.5% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 3 evictions over 3 years of observation.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 5% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491101?
Census tract 51059491101 in the Virginia Run neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491101?
Median gross rent is $3,125/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491101?
1.7% of residents in tract 51059491101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,418.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 12th, minority 51th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491101 considered part of Virginia Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491101 fall within Virginia Run (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491101?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059491101 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.98% of renter households, peaking at 3.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491101 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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