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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Virginia Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville

Tract 51059491102 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,336 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 3.5/10, tract 51059491102 in the Virginia Run area of Centreville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,336 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 3% Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,048
Renter share3.1%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$183,594

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Virginia Run
Very Low
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Very Low
Within county
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#189 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#1,425 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8563, -77.4679 · click any tract to drill in

Why Virginia Run scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Virginia Run compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Virginia Run risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.53.5This tracttract 491102Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 6

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 6Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 3.51%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.3%Peak (2011)
  • 2Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594911022011: 3 filings (5.26/100 renter HHs)2012: 1 filings (1.75/100 renter HHs)2013: 2 filings (3.51/100 renter HHs)2016: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 100% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Virginia Run. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Virginia Run

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally.

Court records carry 6 eviction filings across 3 observed years. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.

Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points. Housing insecurity runs 6.9% against 14.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 5.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 3% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 1.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491102?

Census tract 51059491102 in the Virginia Run neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491102?

1.5% of residents in tract 51059491102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,336.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 12th, minority 63th, housing 1th.
Q4

Is tract 51059491102 considered part of Virginia Run?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491102 fall within Virginia Run (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491102?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059491102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.51% of renter households, peaking at 5.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 51059491102 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51059491102 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491102 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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