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Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally

Crystal Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Braddock

Tract 51059491705 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,244 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51059491705 covers part of the Crystal Springs area of Fair Lakes, VA, and scores 3.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,244. The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10.

Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 7% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units955
Renter share11.0%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate0.6%
Median income$209,219

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Crystal Springs
Very High
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Braddock
Very Low
Within county
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#174 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#1,374 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Braddock and the region

Centroid at 38.8474, -77.3902 · click any tract to drill in

Why Crystal Springs scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Braddock
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Braddock
3.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Braddock
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Braddock
3.5

How Crystal Springs compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Crystal Springs risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.63.6This tracttract 491705Braddock: 4.04.0Braddockparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 5Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 1.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.3%Peak (2011)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594917052011: 2 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)2012: 1 filings (1.67/100 renter HHs)2013: 1 filings (1.67/100 renter HHs)2016: 1 filings (1.04/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Crystal Springs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Crystal Springs

Average gross rent is $3,501, 45% above the Fair Lakes average. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.9/10.

Food insecurity runs 7.8% against 17.8% nationally. 10% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The filing record is not thin: 5 evictions over 4 years of observation.

It sits 0.7 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 33rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491705

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491705?

Census tract 51059491705 in the Crystal Springs neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491705?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491705?

0.6% of residents in tract 51059491705 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,244.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491705?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 18th, minority 75th, housing 13th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491705 considered part of Crystal Springs?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491705 fall within Crystal Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491705?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491705 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.93% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491705 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491705 compare to Braddock overall?

Tract 51059491705 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Braddock at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Braddock; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Braddock

Top eight tracts in Braddock ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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