Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Penderlan Eviction Risk: Lower , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059491701 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,970 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 3.6/10, tract 51059491701 in the Penderlan area of Fair Lakes, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,970. Cost burden runs 27% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units1,986
Renter share47.3%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate1.9%
Median income$132,391
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
36
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8612, -77.3795 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderlan scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,422 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
3.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
3.5
How Penderlan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 8%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 67Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.33%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2013)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderlan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 5.3%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 18.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderlan
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.9/10. Disability prevalence runs 18.9% against 31.5% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 7.1% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 67 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Severe burden reaches 8%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. It sits 0.7 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 3.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #56,048 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491701?
Census tract 51059491701 in the Penderlan neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491701?
Median gross rent is $2,422/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491701?
1.9% of residents in tract 51059491701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,970.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 4th, minority 65th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491701 considered part of Penderlan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491701 fall within Penderlan (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 67 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.33% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491701 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491701 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059491701 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Fair Oaks at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related