Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Spring Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Newington Forest
Tract 51059492400 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,663 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51059492400 covers part of the Spring Hill area of Newington Forest, VA, and scores 3.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,663 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.7/10.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,655
Renter share14.2%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate6.9%
Median income$131,135
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newington Forest and the region
Centroid at 38.7269, -77.2309 · click any tract to drill in
Why Spring Hill scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newington Forest
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.9% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,544 rent vs county FMR
6.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newington Forest
2.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newington Forest
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newington Forest
2.7
How Spring Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 33%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 38Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2011)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 25% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.7%Food insecurity
- 8.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 14.4%Frequent mental distress
- 24.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Spring Hill
Cost burden runs 32% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.7/10.
The filing record is not thin: 38 evictions over 4 years of observation. Severe burden reaches 9%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059492400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059492400?
Census tract 51059492400 in the Spring Hill neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059492400?
Median gross rent is $2,544/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059492400?
6.9% of residents in tract 51059492400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,663.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059492400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 33th, minority 69th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51059492400 considered part of Spring Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059492400 fall within Spring Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059492400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 38 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059492400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.11% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059492400 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059492400 compare to Newington Forest overall?
Tract 51059492400 scores 3.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Newington Forest at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newington Forest; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newington Forest
Top eight tracts in Newington Forest ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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