Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Lorfax Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Crosspointe
Tract 51059492300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,390 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Census tract 51059492300 covers part of the Lorfax Heights area of Newington Forest, VA, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,154
Renter share11.7%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$132,077
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
9
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Crosspointe and the region
Centroid at 38.7364, -77.2425 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lorfax Heights scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Crosspointe
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,896 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Crosspointe
2.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Crosspointe
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Crosspointe
2.7
How Lorfax Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 49%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 21Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2011)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lorfax Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.6%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 6.5%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 20.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lorfax Heights
21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The voucher gap is 25.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
On the high side, supply constraint reads 7.5/10. SNAP participation runs 4.6% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. It sits 1.0 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Court records carry 21 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Average gross rent is $2,896, 11% above the Newington Forest average. Filings peaked in 2011 at 4.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.0% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #61,558 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059492300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059492300?
Census tract 51059492300 in the Lorfax Heights neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059492300?
Median gross rent is $2,896/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059492300?
3.8% of residents in tract 51059492300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,390.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059492300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 49th, minority 65th, housing 0th.
Q5
Is tract 51059492300 considered part of Lorfax Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059492300 fall within Lorfax Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059492300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059492300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.96% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059492300 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059492300 compare to Crosspointe overall?
Tract 51059492300 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Crosspointe at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Crosspointe; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Crosspointe
Top eight tracts in Crosspointe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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